Nearsightedness used to be the exception. Within one lifetime it is on course to become the human default — and the steepest climb is in children who spend their days indoors, eyes on things close up.
EF PT O ZL P E DP E C F D
49.8%
of the world projected to be myopic by 2050 — 4.76 billion people, up from 22.9% in 2000 (Holden et al., 2016; modeled)
01 · The scale
Every diopter raises the stakes
Myopia is not just blur fixed by glasses. The longer the eyeball grows, the higher the risk of sight-threatening damage to the retina.
myopia ≤ −0.5 D
high myopia ≤ −5 D
0 D−2−4−6−8 D
Low · around −2 D
Glasses fix the blur
2.2×myopic maculopathy3.1×retinal detachment
Moderate · around −4 D
Risk climbs fast
9.7×myopic maculopathy9.0×retinal detachment
High · −6 D or worse
Sight itself at risk
40.6×myopic maculopathy21.5×retinal detachment
Odds ratios vs. non-myopic eyes, pooled from population studies · Flitcroft, Progress in Retinal and Eye Research, 2012. Thresholds per Holden et al., 2016.
02 · The trend
From under a quarter to half the world
Global myopia more than doubles in share over fifty years. Among children and teens, pooled studies show prevalence already rose by half since the 1990s.
All ages: Holden et al., Ophthalmology 2016 (2000 estimate; 2020–2050 modeled). Children & adolescents: Liang et al., British Journal of Ophthalmology 2024 (pooled study periods 1990–2000 and 2020–2023; 2050 projected).
03 · The comparison
Where the near world has already arrived
In East Asia's most schooled cities, being nearsighted is close to universal among young adults.
Seoul, 19-year-old menConscript exams, 2010
96.5%
China, high-school graduatesApproximate
~80%
Children & teens, worldwidePooled, 2020–23
35.8%
Everyone, worldwideModeled, 2020
33.9%
Europe & N. America, young adultsRange, cycloplegic data
20–30%
Jung et al., IOVS 2012 (Seoul; 21.6% were highly myopic) · AOP Optometry Today, 2024 (China, Europe/N. America; approximate) · Liang et al., 2024 · Holden et al., 2016. Groups differ in age and method; compare with care.
04 · The stakes
A cost counted in sight and in money
Uncorrected blur already drains the global economy, and the high-myopia group, the one at risk of blindness, is growing fastest.
$244B
Potential productivity lost each year to vision impairment from uncorrected myopia (2015, modeled).
$6B
Further productivity lost to blindness from myopic macular degeneration (2015, modeled).
938M
People projected to have high myopia by 2050: 9.8% of humanity (modeled).
5.8×
Growth in high myopes from 163 million in 2000 to 938 million in 2050 (modeled).
Naidoo et al., Ophthalmology 2019 · Holden et al., Ophthalmology 2016.
05 · What you can do
Daylight is the cheapest lens
In a randomized trial, adding one outdoor class to the school day measurably cut new cases.
Guangzhou first-graders · new myopia after 3 years
Usual school day
39.5%
+40 min outdoors
30.4%
He et al., JAMA 2015 · 12 schools, randomized. About 9 points fewer new cases.
Get kids outside every day. Bright outdoor light is the leading explanation researchers test.
Break up close work: look up and far away regularly during reading and screens.
Book a children's eye exam early. Myopia that starts young tends to progress further.
Ask about myopia-control options (special lenses, low-dose atropine) if a child's prescription keeps climbing.
Correct adult blur. The $244B estimate counts only uncorrected myopia, and glasses are the fix.